The two penalties are not the same size
Failure to file runs at
5% of the unpaid tax for each month or part of a month the return is late, capped at 25%. Failure to pay runs at
0.5% on the same base, with the same cap. That is a factor of ten, and it is the arithmetic behind advice that sounds strange the first time you hear it: file even when you cannot pay.
Where both penalties run in the same month, the failure-to-file penalty is
reduced by the failure-to-pay amount for that month, so the combined rate is 5% rather than 5.5%. It does not change the conclusion.
There is also a floor. A return more than
60 days late carries a minimum penalty of the lesser of a set dollar amount, adjusted annually for inflation, or 100% of the tax required to be shown on the return. A small balance does not produce a small penalty.
The clock that never starts
The IRS generally has
three years from the date a return is filed to assess additional tax. On a year where no return was ever filed, that period
never begins. The year stays open indefinitely.
This is the single most important fact on this page, and it cuts one way only. Waiting does not run out any clock in your favour. It runs out a different one: a refund is generally recoverable only within
three years of filing the return or two years of paying the tax, whichever is later. Refunds on years filed later than that are simply lost, and we have seen people forfeit real money by not filing years in which they were owed it.
Unpaid is a debt with an end date. Unfiled is a year that stays open forever, and a refund that expires. Almost everyone has the risk the wrong way round.
Substitute for Return
When enough time passes, the IRS may prepare a return for you under
its own authority, using the income reported about you by employers, banks, and brokers. This is a Substitute for Return, and it is built to be adverse:
- No itemised deductions and no business expenses — gross receipts on a 1099 become profit.
- Filing status set to single or married filing separately, whichever produces more tax.
- No dependents, no credits.
- No basis on securities sales, so the entire proceeds are treated as gain.
The assessed number is therefore usually far higher than the real liability, sometimes by a multiple. A filed original return replacing an SFR routinely reduces the balance substantially — not through negotiation, but because the actual return has the deductions in it. That is the most common good news in this work.